The French government, led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier, is facing a no-confidence vote scheduled for Wednesday, December 4th, 2024. This unprecedented move, expected to succeed, stems directly from the government’s decision to implement budget measures without securing prior parliamentary approval. Two no-confidence motions have been introduced, one by the left-wing opposition and another by the far-right nationalists. The combined support for these motions already surpasses the 330 threshold, significantly exceeding the 288 votes required to topple the government in the 574-seat National Assembly.
The far-right National Rally (RN), headed by three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen, is expected to vote in favor of the motion presented by the left-wing opposition. This strategic move is anticipated to provide the necessary votes to pass the no-confidence motion. The National Assembly session is set to begin at 4:00 pm (15:00 GMT), with the voting process expected to follow several hours of debate. President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to return to France from a state visit to Saudi Arabia during the day.
Despite the looming threat to his government, President Macron, whose term concludes in 2027, has dismissed the potential ouster as “make-believe politics,” emphasizing his twice-elected mandate and asserting the strength of the French economy. However, the potential downfall of the Barnier government after only three months in office would present significant challenges for the President, leaving him with limited options for navigating the ensuing political instability. Given that new legislative elections cannot be held within a year of the previous polls, President Macron might request that Prime Minister Barnier remain in a caretaker capacity while he seeks a replacement, a process that would likely extend into next year.
When questioned on French television regarding the government’s chances of surviving the no-confidence vote, Prime Minister Barnier expressed optimism, stating that survival is both his desire and a possibility, ultimately dependent on the actions of the Members of Parliament.
Background
This current political crisis follows snap elections called by President Macron in June 2024. These elections were called in an attempt to counter the rising influence of the far-right, but resulted in a fragmented parliament with no single party or coalition holding a majority.
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Political analysts have speculated that Marine Le Pen’s strategy is aimed at weakening President Macron’s position before the end of his term. This speculation is fueled by Le Pen’s ongoing embezzlement trial, with a verdict expected in March 2025. A guilty verdict could potentially bar her from participating in the next presidential election in 2027. However, Le Pen has publicly attributed her party’s support for the no-confidence motion solely to their opposition to the budget, claiming it would negatively impact the French population. She stated to reporters upon arrival at the parliament that censuring the budget is the only constitutional means available to them for protecting the French people.
Should the no-confidence motion succeed, it would mark the first successful vote of no confidence in a French government since Georges Pompidou’s government was defeated in 1962, under President Charles de Gaulle.
Source: Al Jazeera
